Arabica coffee prices for May (KCK26) fell by 2.84%, down 8.10, and robusta coffee prices (RMK26) decreased by 1.03%, down 37, hitting a 6.5-month low due to an improved global supply outlook and increased production forecasts from Brazil. According to Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, the country’s 2026 coffee production is projected to rise 17.2% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags, with arabica production climbing 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, and robusta production increasing 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.
Conditions in Brazil have also improved, with rain in Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-growing area, reaching 62.8 mm during the week ending February 13, or 138% of the historical average. Conversely, Vietnam reported a surge in coffee exports, increasing 38.3% year-over-year to 198,000 metric tons in January, which further pressures robusta prices.
In related data, Colombia’s January arabica production decreased by 34% year-over-year to 893,000 bags, while global coffee exports fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags for the current marketing year, according to the International Coffee Organization.
