On [current date], U.S. stock indexes experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 0.67%, the Dow Jones down 1.46%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.36%. Crude oil prices surged over 6% to a 13.5-month high, largely due to disruptions caused by the ongoing Iran conflict, driving inflation fears and pushing the 10-year T-note yield to a three-week high of 4.15%.
Key economic indicators showed a slight decrease in U.S. weekly jobless claims to 213,000, beating expectations of 215,000, while nonfarm productivity in Q4 rose by 2.8%, surpassing the forecast of 1.9%. Goldman Sachs estimates an $18-per-barrel risk premium for crude oil as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacts global supply.
The Iranian conflict has escalated, with missile interceptions reported in Arab states of the Persian Gulf as Iran vows to retaliate. Furthermore, the closure of the Strait, responsible for a fifth of the world’s oil supply, has led to halted shipments and forced stockpiling by Gulf producers like Iraq, where production was halted at Rumalia due to filled storage tanks.
