May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) is down $0.21 (-1.44%) and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is down $2.40 (-0.57%), largely due to an 11% drop in crude oil prices which influences ethanol production. With the expectation of an ongoing global sugar surplus, analysts project sugar production increases driven by India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with recent reports of reduced sugar output in Brazil.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a surplus of 1.22 million metric tons in the 2025-26 crop year due to rising production, while the USDA anticipates a record global sugar production of 189.318 million metric tons. Specifically, India’s sugar production is predicted to rise by 25% year-on-year to 35.25 million metric tons, supported by favorable monsoon rains.
