On February 12, sugar prices fell to a 5.25-year low due to concerns over a global sugar surplus. Analysts forecast a surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Conversely, the International Sugar Organization predicts a surplus of 1.22 MMT in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
As of today, May NY world sugar #11 increased by 0.10 cents (+0.70%), while May London ICE white sugar #5 rose by 0.50 cents (+0.12%). A recent surge of 8% in crude oil prices is influencing sugar prices, as higher oil prices lead to increased ethanol production, reducing the supply of sugar.
Additionally, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association reported that India’s sugar output for 2025-26 is projected at 29.3 MMT, a 12% increase year-on-year. The Indian government has also approved an additional 500,000 MT for export, raising total export approvals to 2 million MT for the 2025/26 season.
