On February 12, sugar prices plummeted to a 5.25-year low due to concerns over a global sugar surplus. Analysts from Czarnikow projected a surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a 1.22 MMT surplus for 2025-26, primarily driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
As of May, NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) was down 0.05 cents (-0.35%), while London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) decreased by 0.30 cents (-0.07%). Price declines were exacerbated by a rise in the dollar index to a 3.5-month high and speculation over Brazil potentially redirecting sugar cane production towards ethanol due to increasing crude oil prices. Meanwhile, Brazil’s sugar output in January fell by 36% year-over-year to 5,000 MT, though cumulative production through January saw a 0.9% increase to 40.24 MMT.
India’s sugar output from October to February rose by 12% year-over-year to 24.75 MMT, with projected total production for 2025/26 at 29.3 MMT. The Indian government approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar exports for the 2025/26 season, alongside earlier approvals of 1.5 MMT, which has contributed to lower sugar prices amidst expectations of higher exports.
