May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed down 1.85 points (-0.63%) on Wednesday, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) rose by 52 points (+1.47%). The decline in arabica prices is attributed to an increased production forecast for Brazil, with StoneX projecting a record output of 75.3 million bags for the 2026/27 season, up from 70.7 million bags. Additionally, arabica inventories monitored by ICE climbed to a 5.75-month high of 585,621 bags.
Conversely, robusta coffee is experiencing short covering as inventories fell to a two-month low of 4,348 lots. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised global shipping costs, impacting coffee importers and roasters. Despite this, Brazil’s green coffee exports saw a significant year-over-year decline in February, falling by 27% to 2.3 million bags.
