May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) has dropped by 1.86%, closing down -62 to a two-week low, while May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) is down -32 (-1.30%). The price decline is attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and an improving supply outlook, particularly from West African farmers, where consistent rains have enhanced cocoa pod development in the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
As of Thursday, ICE cocoa inventories hit a 7.5-month high of 2,314,981 bags. Demand concerns have surfaced as Barry Callebaut AG reported a 22% decline in cocoa sales volume for Q4, emphasizing weakened consumer interest in high-priced chocolate. Additionally, cocoa grindings in Europe fell by 8.3% year-over-year, reaching 304,470 MT, marking the lowest quarterly total in 12 years.
Amidst these fluctuations, Nigerian cocoa exports increased by 17% year-over-year to 54,799 MT. Conversely, projections suggest the Ivory Coast’s production for the upcoming 2025/26 season will decrease by 10.8% to 1.65 MMT. The International Cocoa Organization has raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years.
