**Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)** has reported a remarkable but limited investment return, where a $1,000 investment over the last decade has grown to approximately $2,500. In contrast, an investment in the S&P 500 index fund would have surged to nearly $3,200 during the same timeframe. The slower growth for Qualcomm is attributed to its high dependency on the saturated smartphone market, facing intensified competition from companies like MediaTek, and missing out on the shift towards AI chips in data centers. This year, global smartphone shipments are anticipated to decline by almost 13%, negatively impacting Qualcomm’s Snapdragon SoC sales, which represent over half of its revenue.
Fiscal projections indicate Qualcomm’s revenue is expected to grow at a mere 2% CAGR from 2025 to 2028. Additionally, there are concerns regarding loss of revenue from its largest customer, Apple, which is planning to replace Qualcomm’s 5G modems with in-house solutions by the end of 2027. This change could potentially decrease Qualcomm’s annual revenue by as much as $8 billion, roughly 18% of its anticipated fiscal 2026 revenue. Although analysts project a healthier 28% CAGR for Qualcomm’s EPS during the same period, this growth is primarily due to prior substantial declines and a recently approved $20 billion buyback plan.
