December ICE NY cocoa prices rose by $10 (+0.19%) to settle at $5,167 per metric ton, while December ICE London cocoa #7 increased by $35 (+0.87%) to $4,015 per metric ton. This recovery came after the prices hit a 1.75-year low amid expectations of a bumper cocoa crop in West Africa.
According to Mondelez, cocoa pod counts in West Africa are 7% above the five-year average, with favorable weather conditions aiding the development of cocoa pods in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Ivory Coast farmers have shipped 516,787 MT of cocoa for the new marketing year (October 1 – November 16), a 5.7% decline from the same period last year. Meanwhile, ICE cocoa inventories in the U.S. have fallen to an eight-month low of 1,759,756 bags.
Weak global cocoa demand is contributing to a bearish outlook, with Q3 cocoa grindings reported down 17% year-on-year in Asia and 4.8% in Europe. The International Cocoa Organization indicated a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for 2023/24, the largest in over 60 years, with a projected production drop of 13.1% year-on-year to 4.380 MMT.
