On March 11, 2023, NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) fell by $0.10 (-0.63%) to $15.74 per pound, while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) decreased by $0.70 (-0.15%) to $454.10 per metric ton. Sugar prices are pressured by increased production in Brazil, where sugar mills are focusing more on sugar output than ethanol, with Center-South sugar production projected to rise by 0.7% year-over-year to 40.25 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025-26 crop year.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a surplus of 1.22 MMT for the 2025-26 sugar year, driven by increased outputs from India, Thailand, and Pakistan. India reported a 10.5% year-over-year increase in sugar production from October 1 to March 15, amounting to 26.2 MMT. Furthermore, India’s government has approved an additional 500,000 MT for sugar exports, supplementing 1.5 MMT approved in November.
Global sugar production is projected to reach 181.3 MMT in 2025-26, up 3% from the previous year. The USDA predicts that Brazil’s output may increase by 2.3% year-over-year, potentially hitting a record 44.7 MMT, along with a significant 25% rise in India’s sugar yield to 35.25 MMT due to favorable conditions.
