On May 1, 2023, cocoa prices fell slightly, with May ICE NY cocoa down 0.06% and May ICE London cocoa #7 down 0.30%. The decline comes after heavy rains in West Africa, particularly in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which have improved cocoa crop prospects. Currently, ICE cocoa inventories have reached an 8-month high of 2,357,294 bags.
This follows Ghana announcing a nearly 30% cut in cocoa farmer payments for the 2025/26 season, and the Ivory Coast set to cut payments by 57% this month. Together, these two nations produce over half of the world’s cocoa. In 2023, cumulative shipments from the Ivory Coast were 1.43 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 0.7% year-on-year.
Demand concerns have pressured prices, as Barry Callebaut AG reported a 22% drop in cocoa sales volume for the last quarter of 2022. Additionally, European cocoa grindings fell by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching the lowest levels in 12 years. Compounding these challenges, Nigeria’s cocoa exports rose by 17% year-on-year, while the International Cocoa Organization raised its global surplus estimate for 2024/25 to 75,000 MT.
