May arabica coffee (KCK26) dropped by -0.95 to $299.55 (-0.32%), while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) decreased by -48 to $3,472 (-1.36%). Coffee prices are being pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop, projected at 75.9 million bags for 2026/27 by Marex Group Plc.
Robusta coffee supplies are tight, indicated by ICE robusta inventories falling to a 3.5-month low of 4,093 lots. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping, raising costs for coffee importers and roasters. In February, Brazil’s coffee exports fell by 27% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags, reflecting additional supply constraints.
Brazil’s coffee production is projected to climb by 17.2% year-over-year, reaching a record 66.2 million bags for 2026. Conversely, Vietnam’s coffee exports in early 2026 increased by 14% year-over-year to 366,000 MT, projecting a bearish influence on robusta prices.
