Sugar prices declined on May 1, 2023, with New York world sugar #11 (SBK26) down 1.50% to two-week lows, and London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) falling 0.84%. The drop is attributed to increased sugar production in India, forecasted to rise by 9% year-on-year to 27.12 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025-26 season, as reported by India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd.
Brazil’s sugar output is also contributing to a bearish market, with a cumulative increase of 0.7% year-on-year, reaching 40.25 MMT, as stated by Unica. Analysts project a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT for 2026-27 due to heightened production in major sugar-producing countries, including India and Thailand. On the other hand, the USDA predicts a 4.6% rise in global sugar production for 2025-26 to a record 189.318 MMT.
Despite the price drop, surging WTI crude oil prices limited further losses, while supply disruptions via the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade. India’s government recently approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export in 2025-26, increasing the total allotment to 2.0 MMT.
