Tesla’s Decline in Auto Sales Amid Robotaxi Ambitions
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported a 14% decline in auto deliveries for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, despite a yearly rise. Overall, the company’s automotive sales fell by 9% in 2025, while EV sales nationwide dropped by about 2%. Consequently, Tesla’s profits nearly halved in 2025, signaling struggles within a weakening market.
Looking ahead, Ark Invest estimates that Tesla’s robotaxi business could represent 90% of its enterprise value by 2029, potentially tapping into a projected $10 trillion global market. The company’s Austin factory has the capacity to produce over 5,000 vehicles daily, indicating a significant scaling advantage as it aims to capture a share of this emerging sector.
Currently, Tesla shares are near $400, with Ark Invest forecasting a potential increase to $2,900 by the end of 2029. The firm’s estimates suggest that by then, only about 10% of Tesla’s earnings potential may stem from traditional auto sales, emphasizing a shift toward higher-margin robotaxi operations.
