On Friday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed down 0.35 points (2.56%), reaching a 5.5-year low due to a sharp 12% decline in crude oil prices, which adversely affected sugar prices by prompting an increase in global sugar supplies. Concurrently, August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) also fell, closing down 6.00 points (1.43%).
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a surplus of 1.22 million metric tons for the 2025-26 crop year, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Brazil’s sugar production is also expected to rise, with estimates reaching 44.196 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, reflecting a 0.1% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, India’s 2025/26 sugar production is projected to be 29.3 million metric tons, a 12% increase year-on-year, potentially elevating export levels as domestic supply stabilizes.
Notably, the expiration of the May London sugar contract saw the largest delivery volume in 14 years at 472,650 metric tons, indicating weak demand amid a persistent global sugar surplus, with analysts predicting an oversupply of 3.4 million metric tons for the 2026/27 crop year.
