As of today, the dollar index (DXY00) is down 0.03%, following President Trump’s announcement of an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, which reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar’s decline is further supported by lower T-note yields and concerns over the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, particularly after Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting maritime security.
In the Eurozone, the April consumer confidence index dropped to -20.6, its lowest in 3.25 years, with the German government revising its 2026 GDP forecast down from 1.0% to 0.5% due to the US-Iran war. This comes as ECB members express no urgency to raise interest rates from 2%, amid expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve in 2026.
Additionally, Japan’s exports increased by 11.7% year-on-year, and imports rose by 10.9%, marking the largest increase in 14 months. However, the USD/JPY is down by 0.11%, as rising crude oil prices pose a bearish outlook for Japan’s economy, which heavily relies on energy imports.
