**Sugar Prices Surge Amid Supply Constraints**
As of today, July NY world sugar #11 is up by 2.40% (+0.35) and August London ICE white sugar #5 has increased by 1.78% (+7.80). The rise comes as global sugar prices hit a 3.5-week high, driven by concerns that rising gasoline prices will lead sugar mills to favor ethanol production over sugar, thus limiting sugar supply.
Green Pool Commodity Specialists have raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit estimate to -4.3 million metric tons (MMT), a significant increase from their previous estimate of -1.66 MMT. Brazil’s sugar production has also faced setbacks, with a reported 11.9% decline year-over-year in early April, leading to forecasts of a 0.5% decrease in Brazil’s overall sugar output to 43.95 MMT for the 2026/27 season. These trends, along with concerns over disruptions from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected about 6% of global sugar trade, are contributing to bullish sentiment in the sugar market.
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