June WTI crude oil closed down $0.27 (-0.28%) and June RBOB gasoline down $0.0033 (-0.10%) on May 1, 2026, amidst optimism for a potential US-Iran peace deal that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest that the US proposed gradual easing of its blockade on Iranian ports, with Iran expected to respond via Pakistan soon. Following this, crude prices rebounded slightly in the afternoon on news of the US considering to restart operations to guide commercial ships through the strait.
The ongoing geopolitical tensions have severely impacted oil production, with Goldman Sachs estimating that crude output in the Persian Gulf has been curtailed by about 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd). This disruption is expected to draw down global crude stockpiles by nearly 500 million barrels, potentially hitting a billion barrels by June. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shuttered approximately 13 million bpd of global oil supply, exacerbating the energy crisis.
Additionally, the United Arab Emirates announced it would exit OPEC on May 1, potentially allowing it to increase production without restrictions. In April, OPEC’s production fell to a 35-year low of 20.55 million bpd, while the number of active US oil rigs rose to 408, still above recent lows. Current US crude oil inventories sit 0.7% above the seasonal five-year average, while gasoline inventories are 3.1% below.
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