Cocoa Prices Decline Amidst Demand Worries and Increased Supply

Cocoa prices are currently in decline, with July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) down 3.17% to $3,947 and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) down 2.69% to $3,021. This drop is attributed to concerns over weakened chocolate demand after Barry Callebaut, the world’s seventh-largest chocolate maker, forecasted a slower recovery in sales. Additionally, cocoa inventories at ICE have surged to a 1.75-year high of 2,913,278 bags.

Weather concerns are also weighing on the market, with an 82% probability of an El Niño weather pattern developing by July, potentially affecting cocoa production in West Africa. A recent report indicated Nigerian cocoa exports fell 20% year-on-year in April, while Ivory Coast cocoa shipments increased by 1.8% to 1.66 million metric tons for the current marketing year. The International Cocoa Organization revised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate down to 48,000 metric tons, the first surplus in four years.