Brazil’s Record Coffee Crop Outlook Puts Pressure on Prices

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On Wednesday, coffee prices continued to decline, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) dropping by 1.94% to $4.90 and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) slipping 0.27% to $9. This marks the lowest levels for arabica in 19 months and robusta in 7 weeks, influenced by a forecast from the USDA predicting a record Brazilian coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, a 14% increase year-over-year.

Vietnam’s coffee exports have also surged, with a reported 7.9% year-over-year increase for the first five months of 2026, amounting to 922,000 MT. Additionally, ICE arabica inventories have decreased to a 3.75-month low of 427,840 lots, while robusta inventories stand at 3,798 lots. However, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies, potentially supporting prices amid rising shipping costs.

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