As of today, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) has dropped by 218 points (-5.50%) to a two-week low, while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) is down 116 points (-3.85%), marking a significant downturn in cocoa prices. This week’s price decline is attributed to concerns over chocolate demand following updated guidance from Barry Callebaut, the world’s seventh-largest chocolate maker, suggesting a slower-than-expected recovery in sales. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories have surged to a 1.75-year high of 2,925,501 bags.
Contributing to bearish market conditions, cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast have risen to 1.66 million metric tons (MMT) in the current marketing year, a 1.8% increase year-over-year, while the Ivory Coast has projected total deliveries of 2.2 MMT for the 2025/26 season. Conversely, cocoa exports from Nigeria fell by 20% year-on-year to 14,921 MT in April, with a projected production drop in 2025/26 expected to fall by 11% year-over-year. Market pressures have also been heightened by recent drought conditions affecting cocoa-growing regions in West Africa, prompting cuts in farmer payments by both Ghana and the Ivory Coast.
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