Cocoa prices fell to 2.5-week lows on June 15, 2023, with July ICE NY cocoa closing down 1.25% at -47 and July ICE London cocoa down 0.45% at -13. The decline is attributed to increased supplies, as the Ivory Coast reported that cumulative cocoa shipments this season reached 1.95 million metric tons (MMT), an 18.9% increase year-on-year. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 1.75-year high of 2,929,074 bags.
The Ivory Coast’s cocoa delivery estimate was raised to 2.2 MMT for the 2025/26 season, driven by favorable weather conditions. However, concerns about a potential El Niño affecting West African cocoa production persist, with a NOAA estimate indicating a 67% chance for a “Super El Niño” this year. In Nigeria, cocoa exports dropped by 20% year-on-year in April, contributing to a more complex global supply picture.
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