As of today, July arabica coffee prices rose by 2.85%, up +7.50, while July robusta coffee prices increased by 1.36%, up +49. The rise in coffee prices is driven by concerns over persistent rain in Brazil, which may delay the coffee harvest, and a forecast for moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions this week.
ICE arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 6.75-month low of 397,242 bags, while robusta inventories rose to a 2.25-month high of 3,991 lots. Additionally, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could disrupt coffee production significantly in South America and Asia.
In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 7.9% year-over-year to 922,000 metric tons through May, with projections indicating an increase in its coffee production to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons for 2025/26. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also tightened global coffee supplies by raising shipping costs.
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