**Coffee Prices Surge Amid Weather Concerns in Brazil**
Coffee prices saw significant increases today, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) rising by +1.40 (+0.50%) to reach five-week highs. July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) also climbed, gaining +26 (+0.71%). The recent surge is fueled by fears that persistent rain in Brazil may delay the coffee harvest, although forecasts for dry weather next week tempered some of these gains.
Current ICE arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 6.75-month low of 396,957 bags, while ICE robusta inventories recently peaked at a 2.25-month high of 3,991 lots. The ongoing El Niño phenomenon poses additional risks, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could disproportionately impact coffee production in Brazil and Asia.
Adding to the complexity, global coffee exports from Vietnam increased by 7.9% year-over-year to 922,000 metric tons during the first five months of 2026. However, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing shipping challenges and raising costs for coffee importers. The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports have slightly decreased by 0.3% year-over-year.
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