On September 28, arabica coffee (KCU26) rose by 3.75 cents (+1.37%), while robusta coffee (RMU26) fell 74 cents (-2.04%). Heavy rains in Brazil, particularly in Minas Gerais, have delayed the coffee harvest, with rainfall reaching 31.3 mm—1,956% of the historical average—contributing to the rise in arabica prices.
Despite arabica gains, robusta is facing pressure as inventories have increased to a 2.75-month high, currently at 4,053 lots. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a 67% chance of a strong “Super El Niño” this year, which could adversely affect coffee production over the coming months.
Global coffee exports are showing mixed trends; Brazil’s May green coffee exports rose by 4.2% year-over-year to 2.73 million bags, while Vietnam’s exports increased by 7.9% year-over-year in the first five months of 2026 to 922,000 MT. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Brazil’s coffee production will reach a record 71.9 million bags in 2026/27, marking a 14% increase from the previous year.
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