Cocoa prices experienced a mixed session on September 27, 2023, with September ICE NY cocoa closing up 14 points (0.28%) while London cocoa remained unchanged. This fluctuation came after a significant increase over the past two weeks, where prices surged by over 20%, reaching 5.5-month highs due to concerns about the forthcoming West African cocoa crop. Heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana has disrupted access to farms and ports, threatening global supplies, with accumulated rainfall nearing average levels for the month already.
Forecasts suggest a bleak outlook for the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, with early assessments indicating a production estimate of 1.8 million metric tons (MMT), an 18% decrease from the previous season. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could adversely affect yields. Meanwhile, total cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast have reached 2.04 MMT this marketing year, a 20% increase year-over-year, amidst a backdrop of declining demand reflected in lower grindings in North America and Europe.
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