Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has estimated an over 80% likelihood of a merger between Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) within the next year, linking the potential deal to Elon Musk’s broader AI and data initiatives. Tesla previously invested $2 billion in SpaceX, acquiring nearly 19 million shares, which account for less than 1% of SpaceX’s outstanding shares.
In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue, including $11.4 billion from its Starlink connectivity unit, which had around 10.3 million users by early 2026. Tesla’s planned capital spending for 2026 has increased from $20 billion to over $25 billion, despite expecting negative free cash flow for the remainder of the year. Analysts highlight that a merger could integrate Tesla’s automotive and energy services with SpaceX’s satellite and AI capabilities, potentially creating a more comprehensive platform for future growth. However, there are concerns about SpaceX’s high valuation, significant financial losses, and the risk factors for both companies.
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