Cocoa prices surged on Monday, with September ICE NY cocoa closing up 13.07% at +658 and September ICE London cocoa rising 12.23% to +460. This increase comes amid concerns about West African weather impacting cocoa supply, as heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have disrupted farmers’ access to crops and increased risks of diseases.
The current forecast for the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop indicates a yield drop to 1.8 million metric tons (MMT), down 18% from 2.2 MMT in 2025/26. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño,” which typically leads to unfavorable conditions for cocoa farmers. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s cocoa production is also expected to decline by 11% to 305,000 metric tons this year.
Despite these supply constraints, rising inventories have emerged as a concern; ICE cocoa inventories hit a near 2-year high at 3,035,471 bags. Global cocoa demand has shown weakness, with North American and European grindings declining by 3.8% and 7.8% year-over-year, respectively, while Asian demand unexpectedly rose by 5.2%.
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