On September 26, cocoa prices surged, with September ICE NY cocoa closing at $65 (+1.14%) and September ICE London cocoa at $43 (+1.02%), marking six-month highs due to supply disruptions from heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. These conditions have cut off farmers from farms and ports, raising the risk of diseases that could reduce yields significantly.
Additionally, early assessments of the 2026/27 cocoa crop in the Ivory Coast suggest a weak outlook, projecting a yield of 1.8 million metric tons (MMT), down 18% from 2.2 MMT in 2025/26. Concurrently, Nigerian cocoa exports rose by 28% year-over-year to 18,034 MT in May, while North American and European cocoa grindings fell 3.8% and 7.8% year-over-year, respectively.
As of the latest reports, ICE cocoa inventories stood at a nearly two-year high of 3,082,154 bags. With the expectation of a “Super El Niño,” which may affect West African cocoa production, and the recent cuts in farmer pricing from both Ghana and the Ivory Coast, the global cocoa market faces uncertainty ahead.
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