On Monday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed down 3.68% at -223, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) fell 3.31% at -149. This decline marks the second consecutive session of falling cocoa prices, influenced by positive supply news from the Ivory Coast, where farmers have shipped 2.09 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa to ports for the current marketing year, representing a 21% increase from the previous year.
As of Monday, ICE cocoa inventories reached a two-year high of 3,194,270 bags, adding downward pressure on prices. Experts warn that heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana are flooding roads and threatening global supply levels, while excessive moisture raises risks for diseases that could affect yield. Looking forward, estimates for the 2026/27 crop suggest a potential decline of 18% in production, with an average forecast of 1.8 MMT for the season starting this September.
The broader market context includes a reported 5.7% rise in sales from Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest cocoa processor, signaling a potential recovery in demand after two years of declines. However, data from both North America and Europe show declines in cocoa grindings, with a 3.8% drop in North America and a 7.8% drop in Europe for Q1, adding to bearish sentiment in the market.
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