On September 26, cocoa prices plunged to 1.5-week lows, with September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) falling by $532 (9.04%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) down by $405 (9.28%). This decline follows a report from the European Cocoa Association indicating Q2 European cocoa grindings dropped 4.6% year-on-year to 316,366 metric tons, the largest decline for Q2 in six years.
Conversely, Q2 Asian cocoa grindings increased significantly, rising 25% year-on-year to 224,646 metric tons, surpassing expected growth of 9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Nigerian cocoa exports surged 30% year-on-year in June to 18,922 metric tons, contributing to a bearish sentiment in the market due to rising global cocoa supplies.
Looking ahead, forecasts reveal an expected 18% decline in the upcoming 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa harvest, estimated at 1.8 million metric tons. This follows a recent cut in cocoa farmer pay in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, which produce more than half of the world’s cocoa. Additionally, rising ICE cocoa inventories reached a two-year high of 3,204,512 bags as of Tuesday.
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