October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.39 (+2.70%) on Friday, while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) rose +15.30 (+3.37%), marking a 1-week high. This surge is attributed to soaring crude oil prices, with WTI crude oil (CLQ26) increasing over +4%, which may lead sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production, subsequently lowering sugar supplies.
Concerns over India’s monsoon rains, which are currently reported as 24% below normal, have contributed to rising sugar prices. The Indian Meteorological Department has warned that this year’s monsoon could be the weakest in 11 years. In the context of global sugar production, the USDA projects that 2026/27 sugar production will decline by 6.5% year-over-year to 184.854 MMT, influenced by the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in major producing countries, including India and Thailand.
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