Arabica coffee prices for September (KCU26) have risen by 3.06% to $9.60, while robusta coffee (RMU26) is up 0.88% by $33. This surge is driven by concerns over heavy rainfall in Brazil disrupting the coffee harvest and tightening global supplies. According to Somar Meteorologia, 32.4 mm of rain fell from July 17 to July 26 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-growing region, amounting to 2700% of the historical average.
Last Friday, market fluctuations occurred after the USDA projected a 6.0% increase in global coffee production for the 2026-27 season, primarily due to Brazil’s improved growing conditions. However, the ongoing slow harvest pace among co-ops, reported at 47.3% complete as of July 17 compared to 59% last year, is adding upward pressure on prices. Additionally, concerns regarding the El Niño weather pattern could further impact Brazil’s coffee crop next year.
In contrast, robusta coffee is facing pressure from rising inventories, which increased to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots. This comes alongside significant increases in coffee exports from Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, which reported a 7.3% year-over-year rise in exports for the first half of 2026.
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