On Monday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed down 5.13% at $5,106, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) fell 4.68% to $3,820, marking three-week lows driven by rising global cocoa supplies. Data from the Ivory Coast revealed farmers exported 2.11 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa, a 21% increase from the previous marketing year.
Cocoa inventory levels at ICE surged to a two-year high of 3,361,752 bags. While Q2 European cocoa grindings dropped 4.6% year-over-year to 316,366 MT, North American grindings rose unexpectedly by 7.7% to 109,659 MT. Meanwhile, Asian cocoa grindings jumped 25% to 224,646 MT, indicating mixed demand trends across regions.
Future cocoa supply predictions remain uncertain due to potential weather impacts from El Niño, which could lower yields in West Africa. Additionally, Nigeria’s Cocoa Association forecasted an 11% decline in production for the 2025/26 crop year, supporting a bullish outlook for cocoa prices in the future. Transgraph Consulting predicts the global cocoa surplus will decline significantly, from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026 to just 80,000 MT in 2026-2027.
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