Cocoa prices showed mixed results on September 27, 2023, with the September ICE NY cocoa closing down $16 (-0.31%) and the September ICE London cocoa up $1 (+0.03%). The fluctuations come amid a shift in expectations about global cocoa supply, as StoneX revised its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate down to 25,000 metric tons, a significant drop from an April forecast of 149,000 metric tons. This adjustment is attributed to risks posed to the West African cocoa crop by an expected El Niño weather event.
Farmers in the Ivory Coast reported shipments of 2.11 million metric tons of cocoa for the current marketing year, reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase. Contrastingly, European cocoa grindings fell by 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons in Q2, while North American grindings increased by 7.7% to 109,659 metric tons. Additionally, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported a 25% rise in Asian cocoa grindings to 224,646 metric tons.
Looking ahead, early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop indicate a possible downturn, with average estimates predicting production at 1.8 million metric tons, down 18% from the previous year. With expectations for a smaller global cocoa surplus and challenges posed by climate conditions, the market is being closely monitored for further developments.
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