**September WTI crude oil closed up $1.08 (1.29%) on Friday, while September RBOB gasoline fell $0.0171 (0.55%).** Crude prices rose sharply due to threats to global supplies, particularly with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, alongside recent attacks on tankers by Ukrainian drones targeting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Despite no new US-Iran confrontations, tensions in the Middle East remain high, influencing supply dynamics.
**Key data includes Russian crude production dropping to 8.928 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, and a potential further decline in Russian refining rates to 3.51 million bpd in July—the lowest in 24 years.** US crude inventories as of July 24 were 6.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, while gasoline inventories were down 6.6%. The number of active US oil rigs increased to 451, just shy of a recent high, indicating a slight uptick in domestic production. OPEC is expected to pause production increases at its upcoming meeting after a recent 188,000 bpd rise.
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