On September 4, cocoa prices closed higher with September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) gaining $39 (+0.67%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) rising $5 (+0.12%). This increase followed concerns over poor weather predictions related to the El Niño climate pattern, which may adversely affect cocoa production in West Africa.
Production estimates for Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer globally, have been revised downwards. Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, forecasts a dramatic decrease in production to 450,000-550,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 season, down from 750,000 metric tons expected for 2025/26, due to factors such as aging cocoa farms and adverse weather. Similarly, the global cocoa surplus is projected to shrink to 80,000 metric tons in 2026-2027, down from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026.
As of August 2, 2026, cumulative cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast reached 2.11 million metric tons, marking a 20% increase from the same period last year. In contrast, Nigerian cocoa exports in June climbed 30% year-over-year to 18,922 metric tons. However, European cocoa grindings fell by 4.6% in Q2, while North American grindings unexpectedly rose by 7.7% during the same period, highlighting mixed global demand for cocoa.
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