**Coffee Prices Surge as Brazilian Harvest Lags**
Arabica coffee prices surged by 3.49% to reach a six-week high, while robusta coffee prices increased by 2.62%, with September arabica (KCU26) rising by +11.80 and September robusta (RMU26) up +95. This surge comes amid a slower-than-expected coffee harvest in Brazil, which is 90% complete as of August 12, lagging behind the 97% completion rate from the previous year and the five-year average of 94%. Additionally, Brazil’s arabica harvest stands at 86% completion, compared to 95% last year.
**Impact of Natural Disasters and Weather Patterns**
The recent 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Colombia, affecting key coffee-growing regions of Caldas and Risaralda, has partially interrupted coffee exports, although no significant damage to processing facilities was reported. In Brazil, below-normal rainfall has been reported, with only 0.6 mm falling in the week ending August 16, raising concerns over the upcoming El Niño weather pattern that could affect production. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center indicates that this pattern could bring about severe weather conditions that would impact coffee production across both Asia and South America.
**Global Coffee Trends**
Meanwhile, coffee exports from Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, have seen a significant increase, with a reported 21.1% year-on-year rise in exports for the first half of 2026. This could place downward pressure on robusta prices. The USDA’s latest forecast indicates a global coffee production increase of 6.0%, with a record output expected at 189.7 million bags for the 2026-27 season, driven largely by improved conditions in Brazil.
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