**Sugar Prices Surge Amid Supply Concerns**
Sugar prices have seen a significant rise, with October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) climbing 3.14% to a 15-month high, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) up 2.91%, marking a 16-month high today. The increase follows reports that India is contemplating cutting import duties on sugar to alleviate supply pressures ahead of the festival season. This year, India has not imported substantial sugar since the 2017-18 season.
Global sugar production forecasts are increasingly pessimistic, predicting deficits in the upcoming 2026/27 season. Covrig Analytics estimates a global sugar deficit of -300,000 MT, while Green Pool Commodity Specialists predict a deficit of -3.3 MMT due to adverse weather conditions impacting major sugar-producing countries like India and Brazil. Additionally, Czarnikow forecasts a 2.9 MMT deficit by 2027/28, driven by lower sugar cane and beet plantings resulting from drought and adverse weather patterns, including the anticipated impacts of an emerging El Niño.
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