Cocoa prices reached a two-week high on concerns over a declining cocoa crop in Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. The Ghana Cocoa Board projected a 13% decrease in the 2026/27 crop to 650,000 metric tons (MT), down from 750,000 MT last year. Similarly, early surveys from Ivory Coast indicate an average production estimate of 1.8 million MT for the upcoming season, a drop of 18% from 2.2 million MT in 2025/26.
Market dynamics are further influenced by inventory levels, with ICE cocoa inventories hitting a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags on August 5. Despite this, recent reports show strong current harvests, with Ghana reporting 750,000 MT harvested for the 2025/26 season, a 25.6% increase from 597,000 MT in the previous year. Cocoa grindings varied by region in Q2, with European declines of 4.6% to 316,366 MT contrasted by a 7.7% increase in North America to 109,659 MT and a 25% rise in Asia to 224,646 MT.
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