Arabica coffee prices are currently down by 0.25 cents (-0.08%) for December delivery, while September ICE robusta coffee is down 86 cents (-2.32%). The drop in coffee prices is attributed to expectations of drier weather in Brazil, which is expected to accelerate the country’s coffee harvest. As of August 14, Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported that 81.1% of the coffee harvest is complete, a slight decline from 86.1% last year. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories reached an 8.75-month high of 4,732 lots, further pressuring prices.
Data from Somar Meteorologia indicated that rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais, a key arabica-producing region, was just 0.6 mm—11% of the historical average—during the week ending August 16. The USDA projects global coffee output for the 2026-27 season will increase by 6% to a record 189.7 million bags, with Brazilian arabica production expected to rise by 12% year-over-year. In light of the El Niño weather pattern potentially affecting future Brazilian crops, concerns remain about its impact on the 2026-27 harvest.
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