On August 2, cocoa prices saw minimal changes, with December ICE NY cocoa closing up +2 (+0.03%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 down -4 (-0.10%). This week, prices faced pressure from a projected increase in global supplies, notably with Nigeria’s cocoa bean exports rising +18% year-over-year to 16,052 metric tons in July, making Nigeria the fifth-largest cocoa producer globally.
In cumulative data from Ivory Coast, the world’s leading cocoa producer, 2.11 million metric tons have been shipped to ports for the current marketing year, reflecting a +20% increase compared to last year. However, ICE cocoa inventories hit a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags on August 5, which is leading to concerns about price stabilization. Furthermore, Ghana’s Cocoa Board projects a 13% decrease in their 2026/27 crop to 650,000 metric tons due to adverse weather and other factors.
Demand exhibited mixed signals; while Q2 European cocoa grindings dropped -4.6% to 316,366 metric tons—the lowest for Q2 in six years—North American and Asian markets reported increases of +7.7% and +25% year-over-year, respectively. These dynamics are influencing market expectations, with the US Climate Prediction Center warning of potential yield declines due to the strong El Niño forecasted to impact West Africa, further complicating the outlook for cocoa prices.
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