As of October 3, 2023, October WTI crude oil prices are down $0.09 (0.11%) to $83.73, while October RBOB gasoline prices have increased by $0.0079 (0.27%) to $2.82. The fluctuations in crude oil prices are attributed to the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has reached a one-week high, and developments regarding Iran and Oman finalizing a revenue-sharing agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz, where about 6-8 million barrels per day (bpd) are currently shipped.
Concerns over potential disruptions in Russian crude production are also influencing market dynamics, as reports indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to escalate the war in Ukraine. In July, Russian crude production fell to 8.89 million bpd, the lowest in six years, fueled by intensified drone strikes on oil infrastructure by Ukraine.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in a report that global oil supply deficits are expected to worsen due to ongoing tensions and disruptions related to the U.S.-Iran conflict, while the U.S. crude oil inventories as of August 21, 2023, were 1.3% above the seasonal five-year average, and gasoline inventories were 5.9% below the average.
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