On Thursday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) rose by +342 points (+5.87%) while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) increased by +239 points (+5.76%), reaching three-week highs amid concerns about declining cocoa bean quality from West African crops. The issues stem from insufficient sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which are exacerbating black pod disease.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board projected a production drop for the 2026/27 crop to 650,000 metric tons (MT), a 13% decrease from 750,000 MT last year. Similarly, early assessments indicate that the Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop may total around 1.8 million MT, a decline of 18% from 2.2 million MT in 2025/26. Despite increased inventories, market adjustments are influenced by weather forecasts predicting a strong El Niño, likely to stress cocoa yields.
In other trends, Nigeria’s cocoa bean exports surged by +18% year-over-year to 16,052 MT in July. Meanwhile, Ghana reported a cocoa harvest of 750,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25, highlighting mixed demand patterns with Q2 cocoa grindings showing a -4.6% decline in Europe contrasted by a +7.7% increase in North America.
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