On October 3, sugar prices declined sharply as the Brazilian real fell to a two-week low against the dollar, with October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) down by 3.52% at -0.64 and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) down by 2.52% at -13.20. This drop in prices follows a recent rally, driven by concerns over global sugar supply.
Recent forecasts indicate significant reductions in sugar production. The European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory projected a 19% drop in EU sugar production for 2026/27, while global sugar deficits are predicted by Green Pool Commodity Specialists to reach 3.2 million metric tons due to lower outputs from Brazil, India, and Thailand. In particular, Brazil’s sugar production in June fell by 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 million metric tons.
Additionally, India’s Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 13% below normal, impacting the country’s sugar output. India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced it would allow tax-free imports of up to 1 million metric tons of raw sugar until October 31, a significant shift for a typically exporting nation.
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