On Friday, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) rose by 1.03%, closing up 3.20, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) fell by 0.73%, down 26. This mixed performance comes as arabica inventories hit a 27-year low of 223,976 bags, while robusta inventories increased to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is reportedly 87.5% complete as of August 21, falling short of last year’s 91.3%. Concerns over the El Niño weather pattern may further complicate production for the 2026/27 season, with estimates suggesting a possible 6.0% increase in global coffee output, totaling 189.7 million bags. Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 21.1% year-over-year, contributing to bearish trends in robusta prices.
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