On Monday, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down 1.35 points (-0.43%), while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) did not trade due to UK market closure for a holiday. This follows a downturn in arabica prices last Thursday, reaching a three-week low partially attributed to increased supply from Brazil’s coffee harvest.
As of August 21, Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported that 87.5% of the coffee harvest was complete, slightly behind last year’s pace. Notably, ICE arabica inventories hit a 27-year low of 223,976 bags, while ICE robusta inventories rose to a nine-month high of 4,943 lots. Concerns over the impact of the El Niño weather pattern and rising coffee exports from Vietnam, which saw a 21.1% year-on-year increase, are exerting pressures on coffee prices.
Additionally, a recent earthquake in Colombia has affected one-quarter of its arabica production. Although exports have partially resumed, operations remain limited. Meanwhile, the USDA projects a record global coffee output of 189.7 million bags for the 2026-27 season, bolstered by Brazilian growing conditions.
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