December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed at $299.10, down 3.67%, while November robusta coffee (RMX26) fell 1.59% to $3,411 on Wednesday. This decline extended a week-long downward trend, with arabica reaching a five-week low and robusta a 2.75-month low, primarily driven by a positive outlook on Brazil’s coffee harvest, indicating increased supply.
As of August 26, Brazil’s coffee harvest was 97% complete, trailing the prior year’s and five-year averages, with arabica at 96% completion. Meanwhile, coffee inventories at the ICE reached a 27-year low of 223,762 bags for arabica, while robusta inventories climbed to a 9.25-month high of 5,004 lots. The weather conditions, particularly the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon, may affect future crops negatively, adding to market uncertainty.
Vietnam reported a remarkable 21.1% year-over-year increase in coffee exports for January to July 2026, totaling 1.31 million metric tons, further impacting robusta prices. The USDA projects an overall 6% increase in global coffee production for the 2026-27 season, with arabica output expected to rise by 12%.
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