Potential Risks and Upsides for SpaceX Stock in Q4

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Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, 2023, with an initial share price of $135. The stock opened at $150, peaked at $176.52 during the day, and closed at $160.95. However, the stock is down over 7% year-to-date, and concerns loom as the 180-day lockup period for insiders, excluding CEO Elon Musk, will expire in early December.

SpaceX is projected to release third-quarter earnings in early November, after reporting a revenue of $7.8 billion in Q2 but also a net loss of $541 million. The company’s significant capital expenditures, totaling $28.5 billion in the first half of 2023—an increase of 309% from the previous year—could further pressure the stock, especially if the upcoming earnings report disappoints.

The stock is currently trading at a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 94.8, significantly higher than other aerospace and tech peers. Investors remain cautious as upcoming financial and operational milestones could lead to price adjustments and increased volatility.

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