On Friday, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed at $2.78, increasing by $0.03 (+1.18%), while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) climbed to $3.39, up by $0.77 (+2.34%). This marked arabica’s highest price in a week, driven by a declining dollar index which encouraged short covering in coffee futures.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected a record global coffee production of 183.6 million bags for the 2025/26 season, with a surplus of 3 million bags, the first in five years. Additionally, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2026 coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags, driven by beneficial growing conditions, while Vietnam’s coffee exports for 2026 rose by 13.7% year-over-year, adding to global supplies.
Despite high inventory levels for robusta coffee, where stocks reached a 10-month high of 5,398 lots, arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 217,646 bags last week. Concerns remain over potential impacts from the El Niño weather pattern on future crops, which could further influence market dynamics.
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